区域国别系列讲座第30讲:How China Manages Change for Its Modernization?

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人物 Hugh Peyman 
日期 2019年10月10日(周四)
时间 18:00 - 20:00
地点 松江校区第5教学楼5266教室
主办 上海全球治理与区域国别研究院
语言 英语 English
内容提要

1976年,休•佩曼开始接触中国,1978年第一次到访中国大陆,90年代开始对中国进行常规经济研究,至今已40多年。今年9月,他的英文著作《中国巨变:地球上最伟大的变革》中文版已由人民出版社翻译出版。

该书着眼于中国改革开放近40年历程,通过大量详实的数据与诸多典型事例对中国的巨变进行了客观、生动的描述,高度评价中国通过变革“使7亿多人脱贫、培养2.5亿中产阶级和解决9亿人就业”,认为这是“地球上最伟大的演出”。该书将中国的变革放到当今世界大背景下,从哲学、历史、经济、政治等不同角度进行分析,并不时与欧美日印等不同国家与地区进行比较,夹叙夹议,纵横捭阖,观点新颖,说服力强。

该书英文版一问世即得到欧美读者的广泛关注。美国普利策奖得主伊恩•约翰逊说,该书“论证有说服力,陈述鲜明、有趣、引人深思,有助于人们思考中国”。

英国广播公司总裁托尼•霍尔说,“对于欧洲人来说,本书告诉了我许多我不知道的事情。一个非常重要的论点是反驳所有那些认为中国会垮台的人。休•佩曼通过40多年来他会见的非凡人物,以前所未有的方式讲述了今日中国的故事。”

I wrote China’s Change: The Greatest Show on Earth to answer one question. This is the most common question foreign investors, media and some academicshave posed forover two decades.When Will China Collapse? Not that I thought it might but I could not rebut the question completely.

The more I learned about the economy the more I knew I was missing some key factor. Steadily, I realised critics overlooked policy formulation and implementation. For this, China had learned from its past, especially from the history that has shaped its philosophy, which in turn influenced its governance and economics.Suddenly, the penny dropped. Change: that is what China understands unlike any other country. Such a common idea, it is so easy to miss: hiding in clear sight. One foreign academic even calls the Yi Jing, the Chinese book.

China’s Change identifies three main components of the process for successful change: goals, means and people. The same principles apply to government, firms or individuals. These provide a framework for understanding change. Goals must be very few and clear: stability and harmony are examples. Means involves crystalising the goals’main ideas through vision, long-term thinking, extensive research and a 360-degree approach. These help avoid damaging, unintended consequences. Third is people: their education, integrity and accountability.

Once goals are identified, pilot schemes are tested to uncover major flaws. The right sequencing of measures and flexibility, not just the ideas themselves, can be critical to success. With that done, policy roll out begins. The emphasis is on gradualism and restraint, not big bang solutions,as often in the West; pragmatism, not rigid ideology; and continual review, weixin, among others. In all, China’s Change lists 20 Essential Ideas that drive the process of change.

人物简介

Hugh Peyman

Hugh Peyman is a Shanghai-based author and speaker, who reflects on what he has learned from over four decades living in Asia, the last 17 years in China.A development economist and economic historian at heart, he is particularly interested in how economics, politics and philosophy combine to explain Asia’s recent re-emergence, while pointing to future long-term global trends.Originally a financial journalist with Reuters and the Far Eastern Economic Review, Peyman spent 35 years in investment, economic and industry research. First, heading Asian research at Merrill Lynch and Dresdner Kleinwort Benson, then founding independent research firm Research-Works in 1999 to specialize in longer-term research to find Big Ideas and Misconceptions for leading global investors, as well as to advise corporations .and. multi-lateral institutions.

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